The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) continues to seek diplomatic means to improve relations with breakaway member states (Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso), now members of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). The bloc has reiterated its position to keep its door open and encourages member states to continue cooperating with exited member states in a spirit of regional solidarity despite tensions. Last year, the Senegalese president, who was appointed to lead negotiations in July, said he was “making progress” in talks with the three countries and added that there was no reason for them not to maintain relations amid ongoing security concerns in the region, where al-Qaeda and ISIL (ISIS) have gained ground.
However, that diplomatic goodwill did not result. The AES countries have taken a bold step, announcing a 0.5% tariff on all goods excluding humanitarian goods imported from aligned ECOWAS countries. This action, already in effect immediately, is a direct threat to free trade within the region and highlights a decline in diplomatic relations within the region. The alliance leadership claims it’s a means to finance its activities. In response, ECOWAS member states are scheduled for an emergency conference to deliberate the next course of action.
Future of ECOWAS-AES Relations: Insight into the Dispute
Faced with the juntas’ threat of secession, African regional organizations, in this case ECOWAS and the African Union, face a dilemma. Do they stick to their principles and exclude states that have experienced unconstitutional changes of government until they re-establish governments accountable to their citizens? Or do they compromise their principles to preserve at least nominal unity and allow authoritarian governments back into the club? In parts of West Africa, however, ECOWAS has lost its effectiveness and support among citizens, who see it as representing only the interests of the leaders and not that of the masses, said Oge Onubogu, director of the Africa Program at the Washington-based Wilson Center think tank.
Due to the practical difficulties inherent in forming economic groups among independent states, it took West African countries ten years from the time of the ECA Resolution to form ECOWAS. The period 1965-72 was characterized by hesitation, vacillation, and politicking, despite all the institutional support that the ECA gave by organizing research and conferences on economic integration in West Africa. The Economic Community of West African States, consisting of 15 nations, was founded 50 years ago with the stated aim of promoting “cooperation and integration … in order to raise the living standards of its peoples and to maintain and enhance economic stability.” Some West African countries, like Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali, have witnessed military coups in the past few years, with the military leaders appearing to enjoy support from their country’s population. Meanwhile, relations between the bloc and the three countries have been tense after military coups took place in Niger in July, Burkina Faso in 2022, and Mali in 2020.
Moreover, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger Republic formally exited the ECOWAS bloc in January 2024 and announced the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) after a series of failed diplomatic attempts, alleged inhuman crippling sanctions, threats of military intervention, and isolationist policies aimed at pressuring and restoring democratic rule in the respective countries. The AES response represents a huge blow to the ECOWAS bloc in over 50 years of existence and a step back in the bloc policy of trade liberalization. Diplomacy scholar Nicholas Westcott explains the AES justification is due to a lack of support in fighting jihadists, illegal sanctions, and the AES criticized ECOWAS as being an agent of the West. Various attempts to restore the bloc as a neutral actor have proved abortive, and deteriorating relations in the region have made the AES align with Russia to counter pressure and challenge the ECOWAS dominance in the region.
The “Confederation of Sahel States,” which was beheaded by Mali in its first year, will group some 72 million people. Their ECOWAS exits were fueled in part by accusations that Paris was manipulating the bloc and not providing enough support for anti-jihadist efforts. Agreements on security non-aggression pacts, as well as economic, monetary, and social domains, were signed by Presidents Assimi Goita of Mali, Ibrahim Traore of Burkina Faso, and Abdourahamane Tiani of Niger. Analysts say the AES’s formation is a significant development in West Africa’s political and security landscape. West Africa observers are also concerned the withdrawal will worsen security in the region. The Sahel – the semi-arid region just south of the Sahara Desert that includes the three departing countries – is wracked with jihadist insurgencies and now accounts for “almost half of all deaths from terrorism globally,” a senior UN official said last year. Besides, the danger is that the Sahelian states could become unaccountable regimes, protected by Russia in return for gold, and living off the illicit trafficking of people and goods across the Sahara.
The Hidden Costs of AES Tariffs on West Africa
The Alliance of Sahel States (AES), comprising Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, has introduced a new import tax to help fund its operations. This “Confederal Levy” (PC-AES) will apply a 0.5% charge on goods entering the bloc from outside countries. Experts have noted that the future of the Sahel is difficult to predict. The ability of the authorities to respond appropriately to the various challenges, particularly with regard to governance, is vital. Adding that, the 0.5% tax by AES Junta-led countries marks a possible end to free trade in West Africa and represents a deteriorating diplomatic situation between both blocs. Factually, ECOWAS has spent decades making efforts to eliminate trade barriers between its 15 member states, significantly improving economic integration across the region.
Thus, analysts warn that while the policy might generate short-term revenue for the AES, it may potentially backfire on the AES countries, resulting in high costs of commodities like food, cement, etc.; an increase in importation costs; and high logistic costs, thereby disrupting regional trade and affecting economies already battling with instability and inflation in the region. The disruption of cross-border trade agreements and economic initiatives resulting from their departure could hinder regional economic progress, particularly affecting Nigeria as the largest economy in West Africa (African Development Bank Group, 2020). Furthermore, this policy is a thorn in the flesh of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that depend on seamless trade to sustain their operations. Increased transaction costs and regulatory complexities will stifle business growth, possibly leading to job losses and reduced economic activity.
Resolving the ECOWAS-AES Tensions: A Look Towards Tomorrow
ECOWAS’s response to this tariff is currently unknown. Joel Ahofodji, ECOWAS Commission’s Head of Communication, confirmed recently that the regional bloc will address the AES tariff and other matters during an Extraordinary Council meeting scheduled for April 22. While not giving any information on possible retaliation action by the bloc, Ahofodji emphasized the meeting would analyze the 0.5% tariff and its implications for trade in the region. Bringing in suspended members’ views may appear controversial. However, this would be in line with ECOWAS’s commitment to continue engaging with suspended members. The path forward requires a combination of economic strategy, political negotiation, and private sector engagement. West Africa stands at a crossroads where the choices made today will determine the region’s economic future.