Central African Republic’s Elections: A Political Analysis of Electoral Legitimacy and Opposition Boycott

The December 2025 elections in the Central African Republic preliminary results of which were announced on January 6, 2026, represent a pivotal turning point in the country’s modern political history. Following years of armed conflict and institutional fragility, the recent elections called the legitimacy of the government into question, not only because of the country’s security challenges, but also because of the non-concurrent change in the constitutional framework under which these elections were held.

More than 2.4 million people registered for the 28 December general election, which observers described as largely peaceful despite delays caused by the late arrival of voting material and problems with the electoral register.

The Incumbent President Faustin-Archange Touadéra won the election, with 76.15% of the vote, securing his third term in office, as announced by the National Electoral Authority. This wide victory margin raises uncertainties about CAR’s democratic legitimacy in an electoral environment whereby opposition resort to boycotts and laws are being manipulated to favor the incumbent administration.

This analysis argues that Touadéra’s victory, despite that it followed legal procedures, lacks substantive legitimacy, caused by two main factors: the ruling party’s perceived clampdown on the opposition through constitutional restructuring, and the withdrawal of the major opposition forces from the electoral process, creating a representative vacuum that may threaten the political stability of the country in the long term.

The Ruling Party’s Perceived Political Clampdown on the Opposition

The just concluded elections in CAR represent a direct outcome of the constitutional referendum held in July 2023, a step widely perceived by the opposition as a political means to keep President Faustin-Archange Touadéra in power for life, analyst says. The legal restructuring suggested controversial changes that were approved by voters. These changes included the abolition of term limits and the extension of the presidential term limit from five years to seven years.

An overwhelming majority of 95% approved the vote in a turnout percentage above 57%. Reports proved that the referendum took place without the participation of the main opposition parties and civil society organizations, who all described the process as a constitutional coup.

This constitutional amendment seems to be like a re-establishment process of the republic in accordance with the ruling party’s vision of ensuring long-term stability through the concentration of power. Legally, the newly adopted constitutional framework allows President Touadéra to claim that his two previous terms (2016 and 2020) were under an old constitutional system that had expired and that his candidacy in December 2025 constituted his first term under the new system, as mentioned by the president’s main adviser, Fidele Gounadjika. “There won’t be a third term, but the count will be set back to zero, so anyone can seek a new term, including Touadera if he wants.”

The adopted constitutional changes also barred citizens with dual nationality from contesting in elections. It states that politicians who hold dual citizenships must renounce them to qualify for contesting. However, as the election built up, the ruling party weaponized the rule on nationality, aimed at disqualifying major elite contenders from the opposition, as most of the opposition leaders who lived for years in exile, especially in France or neighboring countries, were forced to hold other nationalities, given the history of conflicts in the CAR.

An example of this is the attempted disqualification of Former Prime Minister Anicet-Georges Dologuele by the Bangui High Court in October 2025. Anicet’s nationality was revoked by the court, and he was rendered stateless because after he renounced the French citizenship that he acquired in 1994, the Central African citizenship wasn’t restored to him before the declaration of his candidacy, as alleged. However, the constitutional council declared him eligible to contest, having found him to be a Central African.

Henri-Marie Dondra, another opposing candidate, was almost barred from contesting. His candidacy wasn’t approved until November 14, due to accusations of him holding Congolese citizenship by President Touadéra’s camp. Two of his brothers were reportedly arrested and detained in late November. He and Dologuele were prevented from flying to the provinces to hold rallies and had to do neighbourhood walkabouts and events in schools or party offices

The period leading up to the elections also witnessed a fierce struggle between the presidency and the Constitutional Court, led by former Justice Danielle Darlan, who was later removed due to the court’s initial stance against the constitutional amendments. The court was reconstituted with new members described as more loyal.

Opposition’s Boycott Strategy and Its Implications

A coalition of opposition parties and civil society groups opted for a boycott strategy, a step taken to show their displeasure and resistance to the 2023 constitutional referendum. The main opposition coalition, BRDC, dismissed the referendum, citing it as a constitutional coup staged to grant President Touadéra a third term and potentially keep him in power forever.

The leaders of the main opposition party adopted the same strategy as regards the election. The leaders of the main opposition party called for a general boycott of the 2025 elections, expressing their lack of confidence in the ongoing preparations. This move is seen as its only strongest weapon against the ruling party

The boycott was not merely a protest against the result of the 2023 referendum but a protest against the entire process that resulted in the 2023 constitutional framework. The opposition believed that participating in the election would automatically legitimise the adopted constitutional changes, which they considered illegitimate from the onset.

According to the National Elections Authority, a turnout rate of 52% was recorded from the 2.4 million registered voters. This proves that about 1.2 million voters approximately participated in the electoral process, while over 1 million others boycotted the elections, aligning with the opposition’s stance.

This situation changed the narrative of the election from being a battle of strong competitors into a one-way race, which explains President Touadéra’s 76% result, while his main challengers, former Prime Ministers Anicet-Georges Dologuélé and Henri-Marie Dondra, garnered 15% and 3% of the vote, respectively, leaving the remaining 4% of the votes shared among the rest of the candidates. With the boycott of the main opposition, the might of the opposing candidates who contested against Touadéra remained weak.

The main opposition coalition’s adoption of the boycott strategy automatically gave President Touadéra’s camp more “yes” votes. The move gave the ruling party an easy dominance in the elections. However, it also carries a disastrous implication looming for President Touadera’s government, because when almost half the population of registered voters (48%) boycotts elections due to calls from the opposition, it indicates that the legitimacy of the winner announced remains questionable.

These 48% who didn’t participate in the vote represent a major mass that could destabilize the country if no attention is given to their demands. Eligible voters who believe their votes are ineffective due to legitimate constitutional restructuring may dance to the tune of rebel armed groups who believe that change can be achieved only through the application of force.

What Lies Ahead for the Political Landscape?

The results of the December 2025 elections revealed significant challenges facing the structure of political legitimacy in CAR. Touadera’s victory is characterised by procedural legitimacy, as elections were organised and conducted according to existing laws and electoral processes. The victory is void of substantive legitimacy, which demands the recognition of the fairness of the process by all opponents and the general public.

The path ahead might be possibly characterised by a perceived struggle between governance (from Touadera’s camp) and legitimacy challenges (from the opposition). Touadera’s victory will likely lead to a further centralization of power. His party, the United Hearts Movement, is expected to gain dominance at the legislative, regional, and municipal levels due to the concurrent quadruple votes. The president is expected to have a clear path to pass laws without—or with less—parliamentary friction.

Around 71 percent of Central Africans live below the poverty line, suffering a lack of basic services, a lack of passable roads, widespread unemployment, low rates of education and training, and a steadily rising cost of living. President Touadera, having campaigned heavily on his record of providing security and stability, will likely prioritise long-term developmental and infrastructural projects to justify the newly adopted 7-year mandate in the 2023 constitutional changes.

On the other hand, the opposition will likely continue to challenge the legitimacy of President Touadera’s victory. While the constitutional court is expected to validate the preliminary results by mid-January 2026, rivals like Anicet-Georges Dologuele have already filed appeals. Also, there lies ahead a significant risk that the opposition may move towards radical street protests or form alliances with armed groups to challenge Touadera’s legitimacy.

Ahmadulbadawy AbdulRaheem

Researcher at Alafarika for Studies and Consultancy; and writer at Cultural.ng.