What is next for Niger after asking U.S. military to leave?

In the U.S. military operations in Africa’s Sahel region, Niger act an important part and is home to a major airbase. The country’s military leadership recent pronouncement against the U.S. military arrangement and the falling for help from Russia and Iran may take a new turn as security in the Sahel continues to deteriorate over time.

A former France colony, Niger is bounded on the northwest by Algeria, on the northeast by Libya, on the east by Chad, on the south by Nigeria and Benin, and on the west by Burkina Faso and Mali. Though, despite recent gains in the previous decade to overcome the complex challenges facing the country, regional instability from militant expansion and the military involvement in political governance have contributed to a deteriorating posture. The modest size of the country’s defense force stresses its efforts to fight terrorism, as do budget shortfalls, ineffective coordination among security services, and instability in West Africa.

Although, Niger is one of the poorest countries in the world and depends on foreign assistance and prior the military coup last year, the United States (U.S.) was a significant contributor of aid to the country. On July 26, mutinous soldiers detained President Mohamed Bazoum at his official residence in the capital Niamey. They announced that they seized power in a coup because of the West African country’s deteriorating security situation. Analysts say that although regional and international sanctions to force the junta to reverse its coup have squeezed the country, they have also emboldened the military government as it consolidates its hold on power and seeks new partnerships.

Some months after the takeover, the military leaders in Niger asked for the withdrawal of French troops. But the U.S. maintained a drone base in Agadez in the north with 1,000 troops. Though, during Bazoum’s presidency, the American troops trained Nigerien forces in counterterrorism. Also, the international community’s strong condemnation of the coup, most notably by France and the EU was met with anger by the military leaders and led to the withdrawal of French counter-insurgency troops from Niger. The military leaders have subsequently also indicated that they will reverse the law on countering human smuggling to Libya. Till date, Niger continued to combat armed groups.

U.S. Military presence in Niger

Niger remains one of the most resilient countries in West Africa and a crucial partner for the United States since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1960. Likewise, the U.S. government assistance supports every facet of Nigerien stabilization programs. While the U.S. military in recent years began operating a major airbase in the Niger city of Agadez, some 920 kilometers from Niamey, using it for manned and unmanned surveillance flights and other operations. Since 2018, the base has been used to target terrorist insurgents, in the Sahel region. This has shown how active is the U.S. in term of security arrangements in Niger.

While both the U.S. and France had more than 2,500 military personnel in the region until recently, and together with other European countries had invested hundreds of millions of dollars in military assistance and training, report said. But that changed in July 2023 when mutinous soldiers ousted the country’s democratically elected president and months later asked French forces to leave. While the U.S. military still had some 650 personnel working in Niger in December. Nevertheless, since the coup, the troops there have been largely inactive, with most of their drones grounded except to fly surveillance missions to help protect the Americans. Later in December, the U.S. said the country was willing to restore aid and security ties if Niger met certain conditions.

Why Niamey Revokes Military Accord with Washington?

Lately, Niger’s ruling military junta has revoked a military agreement that allows military personnel and civilian staff from the U.S. Department of Defense on its soil. The military stated that the decision, which takes effect immediately, follows a recent visit by some top U.S. officials. The Niger’s National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland accused the U.S. delegation of not following diplomatic procedure. The negotiations were around the current military transition in Niger, military cooperation between the two countries and Niger’s choice of partners in the fight against militants, especially Russia and Iran, and by also intimidating sanctions.

Also, the drone base which usage agreement is for ten (10) years, expiring in 2024. Analyst notes that the military rulers might reason that this is the best moment for Niger to undo the military connection with the Americans in order not to renew the usage of the base. As it is uncertain what will occur in the drone base now that the host country is severing diplomatic relationship the Washington. However, the U.S. responded by not ruling out a continued military presence in Niger, despite a statement by the country’s ruling military junta.

Existing media reports from Washington has disclosed that American officials have tried for months to salvage relations with the junta and to reverse its course. The Pentagon, however, has been planning for the worst-case contingencies if the talks failed. The Defense Department has been discussing establishing new drone bases with several coastal West African countries as backups to the base in Niger. They also indicated that some U.S. Army Green Berets are training local troops in countries like Benin.

Russia and Iran Influences

Affirmatively, the deepening of ties between Niger and Russia has been a major source of concern to the U.S. Both nations signed a Memorandum of Understanding to strengthen defense cooperation in December, 2023. Analysts say this has been worrying for the U.S. and its allies. Also, one reason Niger is shifting towards Russia, apart from the cut in funding, is the unwillingness of the U.S. to provide Niger with the required weapons needed to fight insurgency.

Even, the Wagner Group, the Russian mercenary forces, was one of the first sources of help that the military leaders in Niger reached out to for support as they faced a possible military intervention from West Africa’s regional bloc, Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in a bid to reverse the coup. Correspondingly, part of the appeal for Niger is that Russia can offer to sell its own weapons and equipment without the same conditions to respect human rights and abide by international law that the U.S. calls for, the official said. And, for a country looking for an immediate supply of military hardware, Russia is able to sell its weapons much faster than the United States. In return, Russia is profiting off the region’s natural resources, another official added, including the gold mines in Niger.

Conclusion

It is agreed among most observers that the junta’s decision to cancel the military agreement would be detrimental to US interests and Western influence in the Sahel, especially in the wake of a series of coups in the region, including Mali and Burkina Faso, and because of the growing influence of Russia and China on the continent. However, the country’s inclination toward Russia, China, and Iran makes the United States need to change its approach in order not to lose this strategic partner in the Sahel. Rather, it means that the United States needs to initiate dialogue and diplomatic relations that will advance national interests in Niger, and adopt an approach that advances Nigerien agendas to combat terrorist groups on its soil.

Despite what security experts repeatedly say that the United States’ suspension of its military activities may make Niger vulnerable, and despite Western denunciations of Russia’s proximity; Mali’s recent successes have proven that the Sahel and West African countries are capable of addressing the challenges of insecurity in the event of real will and realistic initiatives among their partners.

Oyebamiji Adesoji

Writer and researcher at Alafarika for Studies and Consultancy.